City SC Posse - Ep 7: Matchday 4 Preview - We're Desperate!

Bright: So we previewed this a little bit on the last episode on the recap for match day three. We need a win on the road against LAFC. We're desperate at this point. We're desperate for a win and it ain't looking good.

Kev: We're desperate for a goal. We're just hoping to put one in the back of the net at this point in time. Let's see something. Let's finish. Finish. ⁓

Bright: Yeah Yeah. You know, the blues have gone through streaks like this, right? Certainly. And we're not having the best year, although all of a sudden the blues are hot lately. ⁓ but you go on streaks and I'm, know, the same is true with, with soccer, but you, I think that's the feeling you need to bury a couple of goals here. You need a game where you can score two or three goals. You start to get that belief going and you start realizing, Hey, we can score now. The problem is, and we've talked about this, it's been two years. We haven't scored goals for two years.

Kev: Yeah. The same feeling over and over and over again every game. It's just like, how do we, who can put one in the back of the net? The one person maybe that you felt good about is no longer here with us, obviously. Klaus. So we need to find somebody. Oh yeah, he was very, he's very streaky. He's a streaky player right now. He's on a hot streak. So it just makes it feel worse as a city fan. Right? But, um.

Bright: Yeah. And even he, you know, yeah.

Kev: We need to find somebody that can finish. So, you I want some maybe new blood up at the top this game.

Bright: Do we think Cordova gets the start? mean, he's only been with the team for two weeks or something like that. He did, he did come in and got about 30 minutes of play, ⁓ last week, you know, like I said, and, and, and the recap episode, thought he played well, you know, obviously no goals, you know, he didn't make like any kind of big impact, but I like what I saw in the short time that he was on the field. So maybe he gets the start.

Kev: Yeah, maybe I can see what's No changes. We're not making any changes going into this game. We're going to be like, ⁓ you know, we felt real good about the opportunities we had. We felt good about the possession. We're going to roll it out, see what happens, see if we can finally put it together. It feels like we should be able to put this together. It just felt like again, we were going to finish in that last game.

Bright: What? No changes. Ugh.

Kev: Obviously it never happened, nobody had that.

Bright: Yeah.

Kev: that drive, that killer instinct, whatever, whatever you want to call it. ⁓

Bright: Yep. And we had that in season one, you know, we can, we can go back and we can talk about season one as much as we want. It's kind of like going back and talk about the blues 2019. Well, not, not every year is going to be like 2019, know? Um, and that, and I think that's true here, but in, in the inaugural season for city, it didn't even started with, with game one, you know, we're tied to two against Austin and Klaus pulls one out of nowhere.

Kev: 2019 Yep.

Bright: You know, we win the game three, two, and that kind of set the stage for at least the first half of the season, right? Where we knew we were going to go out there and we were going to score, you know, and if we could score, then you just think like, we just got to stop them. They just can't score as many goals as we score. And that's exciting soccer right now. It's like, we need to hang on. We need to stop them from scoring in the hopes.

Kev: Yeah, it's gonna be a shutout.

Bright: That we can somehow put one in the nets, right? It's gotta be a shutout.

Kev: It's gotta, yeah, we gotta keep the sheet clean, right? Like, you can't let them score, because as soon as they score, you know that we're not winning the game. Our win's off the table, right? Like, maybe we're draw. Maybe we're open. Yeah.

Bright: Well, especially, especially if the other team, if they score first. Yeah. If the other team scores first, it's like, it's like over and you're right. You're playing for a tie at that point, which you know, my feelings on ties. and.

Kev: We're going into a game here. They can score.

Bright: Who LAFC? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. LAFC. They are, um, they're three and Oh, so right off the bat, not, you know, not a good look. The only hope, the only hope that we have is they had a, a champions league game, uh, on Tuesday, I think. Right. So they're coming off of a, of short rest, but, um,

Kev: City, I'm not talking city yet. Yeah!

Bright: Let's see, they tied on Tuesday in the round of 16 of the champions league. Uh, they beat FC Dallas, one, nothing. And then they beat Houston to nothing. And then I don't know what their first game was. Let me see if I can find. ⁓ Inter they beat Miami three, nothing, you know, so that have they given up a goal yet? No.

Kev: don't even worry about it.

Bright: That does not bode well. They did give up a goal in the, in the champions league on Tuesday. They gave up one, but in, in league play, they have, they have not given up a goal. So for a team that can't score. Yeah. Yeah. It's not, it's not a great feeling. That's for sure. Especially in your plan. You're playing in LA.

Kev: I'm so tired. about time. Yep. not a good feeling. Yeah. It should make, you got a team that can't score going up against a team that hasn't given up a goal should make betting relatively easy, which is nice. So we can lean on that maybe.

Bright: Yeah, we'll see. We'll see. Now I now I'll be home for this this game and then I leave for Florida. So I will be on the road for the New England game. I don't know if sports betting is legal in Florida yet or not. ⁓ You know.

Kev: Yeah, I don't know. It feels like it would be though.

Bright: Yeah, right. No, they don't. They kind of have this like it's free for all in Florida. Right. So yeah, why not? Yeah. And you know, our, our record against LAFC as a whole is not necessarily great. We did have a two, two tie last season in LA. ⁓ and then I'm pretty sure we lost to LA when they came here and I'm trying to remember what that game was.

Kev: Yeah, exactly. What's our record? You probably don't have it on hand, but I'd be interested to know what our record is, what our ⁓ goals for and against are, just out on the West Coast in general as we travel out West.

Bright: Yeah. No, I don't have all that, you know, and, ⁓ I remember, ⁓ I, I went to this game, they came here and it was sons. Like, was it his first or second game in the league after coming over? And I can't remember if he scored two or three, like he dominated us. Dominated. And that, that was that. So we went there and we tied two, two last year, and that was a game we should have won. We were actually up two to one, ⁓ toy shirt, getting the goal. then LAFC scored in stoppage time to make it two, two and Berkey was out. So Lunt was in and he played one of his best games of the year. He had seven saves, including a penalty stop. All right. So played a pretty, played a pretty good game in LA. Last last year, and then they crushed us when they came here and it was obvious who was the better team last year. So certainly does not bode well. Obviously they still have sun. Like I said, the only thing that I hope for is that they're a little tired. Maybe some of their players, you know, don't, don't get the start or, know, have a short leash after playing on Tuesday and we can capitalize on.

Kev: Yeah. Yeah, I mean that'd be a that'd be benefit benefit to us if they're playing on short rest, right? Like maybe they're subbing early. ⁓ I don't feel good about this game. I don't feel good about this game at all. So.

Bright: No, no, Hardly any road games. I don't feel good about hardly any road games, especially with our track record on the road. We're not good, so.

Kev: Yeah, like, I don't know what kind of hope I could have going into this game. Like, yeah, they're on short rest maybe. Yeah, they're going to sub quicker. We're going to see some of their bench a little bit more than we normally would. Do I feel good about that? Still, no, not.

Bright: Now we should have a little bit more desperation. That's the only other thing there. They're three and ⁓ they're feeling good. They're playing at home against the bottom of the table team. Maybe they come in a little complacent and we can surprise them that, know, that's the only thing, whether it's on a counter attack or maybe we get an early goal. You have to hope for something like that. A counter attack goal or an early goal.

Kev: Yeah.

Bright: where they're kind of back on their heels. They're, you know, they think that they're going to dictate the game and we come out and really, you know, show, yeah, shock them. That's the, that's the only thing I. I feel like a professional sports analyst, like we could be on the radio, like anybody can do this, right? You predict a couple of things and happens and all of a sudden you're in an X you're an expert. So if that happens, I'm going to let it be known right now. If we score on the counter attack.

Kev: Rock them a little bit early and be physical and yeah. Yeah. Tony Romo.

Bright: or early in the game and, and surprise LAFC. You heard it here first people, ⁓ city SC posse, the professional sports analysts, you know, well, certainly we did it against San Diego.

Kev: making predictions. We got it. We got, I was going to say we got it against San Diego. And we said, just don't give up an early goal. Like that's so key. then sure enough there it was. So you're calling it the other way. You're saying we need to jump on it right away and put that pressure on.

Bright: Two minutes in, yeah. Well, we need to, I'm, think that's the only, the only chance we have at a win is, is on the counter attack or scoring early and an LAFC just not being able to put one away. Yeah. You want to know what the, you want to know what the wind probability is?

Kev: Yeah, I think you're right. You're probably right. ⁓ Win? ⁓ 16 %

Bright: Yeah. Nah, close 12 % for city 12, 12%. The draw is at 17 % and that leaves LAFC with a 71 % chance to win.

Kev: 100 % yeah. Great. Yeah, it feels that way.

Bright: Where does that fit? you looked up, have you looked up any bets? So is there anything that you're eyeing?

Kev: ⁓ Yeah, so where was it? ⁓ Of you've got the, you got great odds going right now if you're looking, if you're feeling like chancing it with a city when you're getting a plus 600. Feels, you know, it feels like you're getting, you're getting good money back on it, but there's a reason it's at plus 600, right? With the drop 425. I think you just avoid the money line. You could always go down and do the, I think it's the Asian handicap to where they're giving.

Bright: Woo, that's a lot. ⁓ Sure.

Kev: St. Louis City plus a goal and a half in the game. So more traditional in terms of the line coverage there. I think I would go, I would go LAFC minus a goal and a half at what is it? Minus 110 pavement. So that would be my bin.

Bright: So if. So they had to win by two goals, they had to win by two goals or more? And how much do you win? was the?

Kev: Yep. It's minus 110. Yeah. So you're putting in $110 to get 100 back, right? So ⁓ I feel like that one probably would be my play here. You can get ⁓ St. Louis ⁓ City. you're going to get, I'll get to that here in a second. Total corners for my team, right?

Bright: That's kind Right, right. Now what Draw or win. Okay.

Kev: ⁓ City is three and a half. So if you're feeling like we're going to get any quarters going, which I don't, I think we're going to probably be right at three sounds right. Could be the play on the other.

Bright: Well, we had eight on the last game at home. It was like eight or nine the first game at home. Now know we're on the road. I can't remember how many we had against San Diego. I wonder if I could find that real quick.

Kev: Do it. think we had many. ⁓

Bright: I wonder if. Hold on, hold on. All, all that. We had, we had two corners in San Diego. So at home, we're getting a bunch of corners on the road. I mean, we're only one game on the road, but only two. So

Kev: So you... I was just gonna say I think he... Yeah. Boy. Little boy. Yep. We talked about game one. It felt like we had the possession the whole game. It felt like we had some good offense throughout that game. couldn't. No, we put one away. Couldn't put more than one away in, but felt good about it. And game one felt really good about it. Game three. So maybe it's a home. Take the over away. Take the under.

Bright: Wait, so what is the line on that? You're right. Right. So what if you're going the over on the corners? How much is that? What's the payout on?

Kev: Man, you're killing me. moved on from it. Let me find it. ⁓

Bright: They shouldn't.

Kev: I see that now. Team total quarters. The over you're getting just minus 130. Minus 130. So they're wanting you, they're begging you to take the under on that one at minus 105, right? So I think minus 105 sounds pretty good at the under. 3 and 1 half on two quarter kicks.

Bright: ⁓ Yeah, well that's not worth Yeah, right. Mmm. But here's the thing I don't understand. This is what I don't understand about sports betting or betting in general, I guess. So you go over, what'd you say it was minus one 30. You go under it's minus one ⁓ five. So there's no plus scenario on that. So to me that that's that to me, that sounds like a lose, lose bet. I mean, that to me, that sounds like the house is guaranteed to win.

Kev: 3. Yeah, yeah. Minus my 30 for the angry. ⁓ huh. Well, house is always guaranteed to win.

Bright: Well, if you're paying out 600 to one, you know, at least you got a chance there, know, but if they're, if they're

Kev: Yeah, but it's not happening. They're taking enough bets on the other side where people are taking the safe bet, right? And then all of a sudden they lose it. Generally, they always want it to be somewhere around minus 105 on one side and then maybe minus.

Bright: Yeah, yeah, yeah, I get that. I get that.

Kev: 109 or something right to where they're collecting that difference they're hoping to keep those bets even as possible on both sides in terms of the dollar value so that's why you see lines fluctuate because you know you do see it heavier on one side so they shift it to try to get action on the other side so trust me they know what they're doing

Bright: Right, right. Right. Sure. Right. All right. Here's, here's a bet that I'm interested in and I don't know if you could find it. Pompeo anytime goal scorer.

Kev: Yeah, we can find that one. Goal scorer.

Bright: So I have to think after just some of the uproar on social media, like, don't know why Pompeo is not getting to play, especially if the San Diego match he came in and he brought a spark to the team and then he doesn't even get in as a sub in the last game. I think we were all kind of expected him to start over Wallum. Wallum is terrible. We talked about this in the last episode. He's got like, if Pompeo is not in this game to bring some offensive sparks.

Kev: He needs, he better now. Like, yeah.

Bright: I don't know. if he. Yes, yes.

Kev: Bring some creativity, bring some kind of attack down that wing, you know, like.

Bright: So if he does get the start, I just kind of have this feeling that he's going to do something.

Kev: plus 600, any time goal scorer. If you feel like he's getting the first one, it's ⁓ at plus 2000.

Bright: All right. Well, I wonder what's up. Wow. All right. What if, what if you did like a parlay Pompeo, anytime goal scorer city win. You could even piggyback on that and do City 1-Nothin'-Win. Do a tr- you know, three-way parlay. I'd be curious.

Kev: So if you were gonna do the city win on the money line with the Pompeo, any type Pompeo, any type goal scorer, you're getting a plus 1900.

Bright: And what if you threw in the one nothing city win exact score? Can you do that?

Kev: ⁓ geez, Matt. ⁓

Bright: I know, hey, I'm getting tricky here, but this is a parlay I think our listeners might be interested in because I'm throwing it out there right now. Pompeo gets the early goal on a counter attack, makes it one nothing and we hold out for the win.

Kev: City won nothing City won nothing game video.

Bright: If the odds are there, is it like a plus 6,000 or something?

Kev: You so you could throw down five dollars and find yourself with ⁓ 450 extra bucks in your wallet you know if you make that bet so at plus nine thousand

Bright: There. So that's a plus 9,000. I, I wouldn't, that's even, I said plus six, I said plus 6,000. So it was even better. Yeah. Yeah.

Kev: plus one ninth, yo, 9,000 for a. Shortage yourself. Yeah. Yeah And that's on a city one nothing win Pompeo anytime goal scorer ⁓

Bright: Hey, all right, put me down for that bet right now. Five bucks, especially since I can't bet. Can you fit, can you do it? Five bucks. All right. Five bucks. Hey, if I, know, 450 bucks though, you know that, that ain't bad.

Kev: Right, I just did it. Just did it. Just lost $5. Yeah, please Venmo it over. Please Venmo it over. Yeah, there's a finder's fee. There's a user's fee in that. So just enough way I... Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Bright: Yeah. Uh, uh, well, honestly, forget about the betting. Pompeo needs to play this game. He needs to start. Yeah. He needs to score, get Walla out of there. He's terrible. He kills all of our momentum. When we're moving forward, all he does is step on the ball and pass it backwards. It's pathetic. I could, I could do that even at 42. I could be out there running down the wing, stepping on the ball and passing it back.

Kev: needs to be on the way. Yep. You don't even want to see him in the game. Not a sub. Hang out. Maybe once. One win sprint, that's it. You're done after that. I'm wasting a sub on you. ⁓

Bright: Yeah.

Kev: Yeah, that's the big change for me that we need to make. He needs to be sitting on the bench. He needs to be riding it this Saturday. Up top.

Bright: I tell ya.

Kev: Probably take a better out. Who you gonna play?

Bright: Yeah. Well, I think it's either Cordova. If he's ready to go, you know, I don't, again, I don't know what his, I don't know what his fitness looks like. I don't know if he's going to be a hundred percent ready to go. ⁓ or McSorley you give McSorley the start. ⁓ now the only other option is, is saying Ben he's got the South Korean connection right now with son. You know, they both play for the national team. ⁓

Kev: I think it's cool.

Bright: So if the coach was feeling nostalgic, that's not even the right word, feeling, ⁓ I don't know. don't know what the, yeah, I'm thinking of a much fancier word, but yeah, if he wants, if he wants the heart to heart connection or whatever, or he wants the feel good story.

Kev: Feeling generous? Feeling, ⁓ to try to or try to win over the players a little bit more, you know, in the locker room and give him that opportunity and that kind of experience. And he should.

Bright: Yeah. Yeah. Right. If he wants to go for the win, then it needs to be, it needs to be Cordova or McSorley with toy shirt, Hartle, Edelman, Durkin, Pompeo. And then you can stick with the same back four. think Arasco, Pavara, Baumgartel and Santos. Like I said, I was impressed with Santos. He just needs to work on his right foot. Totland is out. ⁓ he did, and I, and you know, I got this right here. He did start practicing, ⁓ on March 12th, but he is not expected to play an upcoming matches. So he, he practiced with a limited capacity, ⁓ and probably isn't. Abdominal strain. Yeah. Yeah. Could be groin maybe it says leg of Dom abdominal. So it could be like a groin or. ⁓

Kev: We said he had a abdomen issue. It's flexor kind of area.

Bright: Yeah. Hip flexor type thing. So they said maybe a April, April return. So he's going to miss, you know, two or three games here. So, ⁓ I think that pretty much solidifies a Roscoe who played good last game. He's just kind of boring. And in my opinion, Totlin brings a little bit more excitement. Roscoe's, you know, he's kind of.

Kev: Yep. ⁓ We all know the key to this game. It's going to be Berkey again. It's going be Berkey. Berkey, it's always, yeah, it is always Berkey. Well, not always. We've had some games, like the first game that reminds me, like, he didn't have to do much in that first game. Somehow we still ended up letting up a goal. But, you know, he's going to have another huge game, I think, in this one in order to come away with the tire win.

Bright: GULF. Berkey? Well, it's always Berkey. He's going to, he's going to have to come up with some saves though. Yeah, you're right. Yeah. Yeah. Well, see, there's just going to be goals that he can't save. Yeah. I think you're right. Especially with son. We know son can, he's going to score. He's going to create chances. And he did it the last time he played us. ⁓ so I don't know. It's a late start. It's a nine 30, a local time start Apple TV. The only nice thing about that kids are in bed. Wife is in bed. I can pound a couple beers and watch the game. I think that's my plan. And maybe I'll do some live, ⁓ some live tweeting or something.

Kev: There you go. Let's just hope the broadcast doesn't drop.

Bright: Yes. Yeah, we need a little bit better broadcasts on, Apple TV for sure. ⁓ you know, go ahead and give the NFNP pod a follow on X and Facebook. And, ⁓ you know, you can, you can see some of my live comments as we go along. Maybe I'll even go live. You never know. That's not something I, not something I do very often, but maybe I'll do it. ⁓ but you know, I'll post the blog. It'll be our immediate reaction.

Kev: Yeah, gotta do it. I like it.

Bright: of the post game. I'll post that early next week. ⁓ Kevin and I will come at you. I'll be on vacation, but we're still going to record. I won't have the fancy studio set up, but you and I are going to record. We can carve out a couple of minutes. ⁓ and maybe three sheets to the wind, but, ⁓ might be on the beach, but that's all right.

Kev: What are you doing? You got a vacation.

Bright: That's the way to do it. And that's right. And I'm, you know, I'm to be watching that game. So we play, um, I'll be on the road for the new England match. So it'll be six 30 my time on the Saturday night. Might have to find out. I'll be a Marco Island. I have to find a bar or something to watch the game. Could be fun.

Kev: I have to be on your phone.

Bright: Now, sometimes I do that too, and that's fine, but, ⁓ I'm going to watch it, no doubt. And then we're going to come back. We're going to give you our reaction. We'll give you the preview for the next episode. ⁓ again, thanks to our listeners and we'll catch up for the next one. Let's go city.

Kev: So.