CITY SC Posse 36 | Decision Day: Win, Draw… or Lose Home Field?

Bright: so I think that's the the most important thing is securing home field advantage, right? Make sure that you get the the two games, if necessary, game number three, at Energizer Park. That gives us the best opportunity to get out of round one. We I know we've lost two big games here at home against San Diego and Portland, but historically, over the course of the season We are a much better team at home. And to your point, that tends to be the trend in the MLS. So Houston

Kev: Mm-hmm. Yep.

Bright: also, and I do have that number. I don't know if I got it right in front of me. but they, of course, are a better team at home as well. They are eight, three, and five at home, right? So if we

Kev: Yeah.

Bright: end up in fifth place. Most likely having to play Houston, right? they're they're gonna be a better team at home. They're gonna be tough to beat at home. Now, we have beaten them twice already this year. We beat them two to one at Energizer Park in MLS. And then we beat them in the US Open Cup in the penalty kicks after a two-two draw, right? So, but two close games, both at home. And they y they could very well be your matchup. So I think that's something else to consider is do you play the same tactics, do you play the same strategy, knowing that you could very well be playing the same team over the course of the next three games?

Kev: Yeah. I are the chances pretty high then. I'm assuming that either either way, whether here or there, we're likely to play Houston.

Bright: So I've got the odds. I've got the odds here. Let me see. let me see if I can find them here. All right. So right now for the game against Houston, there's a 35% chance that we win, a twenty seven percent chance of a draw, and a thirty eight percent chance of a Houston win. So Vegas odds are giving us a sixty two percent chance to get the win or the draw that we need to secure home field advantage. So that is that sounds pretty good in and of itself, right? could I mean obviously it

Kev: Really.

Bright: makes sense. We only need a draw. Houston needs a win, right? So so we have we have that going for us. Now you also have San San Jose that's in play. We can catch them. We're not we're not catching Dallas, we're not catching Vancouver. Those are done. So that leaves San Jose. So they're playing At Minnesota. So Minnesota has a fifty-four percent chance to win. There's a twenty-three percent chance of a draw and a twenty-three percent chance of a San Jose win. Right.

Kev: So Vegas likes our odds.

Bright: Yeah, so so

Kev: to jump.

Bright: here's here's the actual estimated probability on where we finish. So a forty one percent chance that we finish in third place, a twenty

Kev: Okay.

Bright: percent chance we finish in fourth place, and a thirty eight percent chance that we finish in fifth place.

Kev: All right. It's not bad. All numbers on on paper

Bright: Yeah.

Kev: don't really mean anything, but it's good. You know, I don't mind the forty one percent to to jump up. You know, two things have to happen, so it's tough, but

Bright: Yeah, ideally. Now it changes who we could play in the first round. So you look at if we finish third, which is our actual highest probability, our most likely candidate to play would be LAFC. Right. I know. So L A F C that we'd have a forty one percent chance of playing them. if we finish fourth, then we're most likely to play Houston. Right. And if we finish fifth, we're most likely to play Houston.

Kev: There any way that we could get like sporting KC in the playoffs to play against,

Bright: They have been eliminated. Yeah. I saw

Kev: Sounds a little a little more friendly than than the two options.

Bright: some funny memes on social media and it was sporting KC, playoff, decision day scenarios, right? And it was all eliminated, eliminated, eliminated. We have no chance of making the playoffs. Just trying to not get the wooden spoon. It w it was pretty good and

Kev: Gone fishing. That's

Bright: And we could take a little bit. But

Kev: funny.

Bright: of course it all comes back around. Cardinals, we used to do that with the Cubs, and of course, they eventually won

Kev: Sure.

Bright: a World Series and the Brewers just won. So eventually it'll all come back

Kev: We're gonna talk about it.

Bright: around. Sport NK will be a good team again. but but

Kev: Yep.

Bright: w so we'll we'll relish in that this season, certainly. But yeah, so

Kev: Sure, sure.

Bright: you got a couple of different playoff scenarios there, but I I again we can go back to we need a win or a draw that puts us in the best possible position, regardless of whether or not we finish third or fourth. We have two games, if needed, at home and and I think that makes all the difference. So going into this Houston game, we have Matan and Berkey available.

Kev: Okay. I thought I saw them practicing.

Bright: Yes. So I think Berkey is back. He he he initially came back as a non contact participant, but I think he's fully back now. Matan was a full participant in practice. And DeMay said that they're both available and the team is fully healthy. Which is which is good, right? So that's great. Team's healthy.

Kev: Do we Do we think Matan starts then?

Bright: So that that's the question. That's where I'm going. So I think Berkey probably starts, right?

Kev: Mm-hmm.

Bright: his fitness isn't as important, although I go back to earlier in the year when DeMay didn't play him because he said he wasn't a hundred percent fit. And I'm like, he's the goalie. Like, I'm sure he could play the game.

Kev: Yeah, I remember. Yeah. How fit do you yeah. How fit do you need to be back there?

Bright: So I I think you see Berkey back there. I think that improves your chances materially. We talked about it last episode. I think our defense gets better. I think our confidence is better with Berkey back there. So

Kev: And

Bright: I think he definitely starts. Assuming he's healthy, it sounds

Kev: Uh-huh.

Bright: like he's healthy, he should be starting. Matan,

Kev: Agreed.

Bright: that's the bigger question for me, is what is his fitness level? He's missed the last four games.

Kev: Yeah, but think about that's two weeks, right? Like it's only been two weeks. I know it's been four games or something, but

Bright: Right. Yeah. So can he play can he play a full ninety? I don't know that you want to do that. Right. So do you s well, hopefully

Kev: G do you need it to maybe?

Bright: not. That's the thing, right? So do you start him, hope that we can get some early goals and then you can take him out at halftime or at sixty minutes. Yeah. And I think

Kev: throwing a yeah. Throwing a Sangban or something.

Bright: I would rather see him start Then come in later in the game. give us the best opportunity to get some goals early. And then then you can make adjustments.

Kev: Yep. Give him the most minutes out there with Hulsa, with Navarro, right? Like that's what you want. You want that that combination. So the more minutes that he gets to play with those two, I think you're getting your best opportunity to win. and then you know, he he's a starting player, so his routine is used to, you know, getting ready for that game, jumping on the field right away. And it's just different coming off it is. It's different coming off of the bench. So I don't know if you're gonna get a hundred percent of what he brings as he's coming off the bench.

Bright: Sure, I I agree. So I th I think we're aligned there. Let's let's start Matan, let him play what he needs to play. Hopefully we deliver, and then that makes those those halftime decisions a little bit easier. I think you want to try and get as people minutes, right? This is finally we can say this is our first game in a long time with a full week in between games, right? So

Kev: Yep.

Bright: It did give the team a chance to rest, recover, and get healthy, which is important.

Kev: Mm-hmm.

Bright: but then we'll have at least another week before the next game. I think I think eight and nine seed we'll have to come and play a midweek game, and then we'll come back and we'll

Kev: Soccer.

Bright: play we'll play next weekend, I guess, for the first round. So I think you want to get people minutes. So I think you want to get Sangbin in there in the second half, hopefully again with with us in the lead, I think you want to get Betcher in there. I'm not as concerned

Kev: Yeah, there. Yep.

Bright: with Downs, right? I'm I still I still

Kev: Yeah. Agreed.

Bright: like him and I think moving into next season, I I think he has a lot of opportunity, but I don't know how much of an impact he's gonna make in the playoffs at this stage, right?

Kev: I'm I'm still thinking of that rifle shot he had. Man, man.

Bright: he had Yeah.

Kev: That was that was a laser.

Bright: We know he can score. We know he can be a good player, right? It's about fitting into the system. I think it's about getting his confidence back.

Kev: Mm-hmm.

Bright: But I I think at this stage I'm just not I'm just not concerned about getting him minutes because I don't think he's the one that's making a big impact for us.

Kev: Hundred per yeah. You're you're thinking more of what he could be in the sprint season

Bright: Yes.

Kev: than throughout the rest of this you know, this run. So

Bright: Yeah. Now if you're up big and you need somebody to come in to fill a spot to give our guys some rest,

Kev: Yeah.

Bright: great. Right. But I think at this point you're relying on Navajo and and Betcher coming in off the bench to get some goals that you need.

Kev: We have what do we have him through? Is it through the spritz season and

Bright: Yeah, I think so.

Kev: then we have the option?

Bright: Yes. And we have a purchase option on him. So so yeah, yeah, yeah. So we we've

Kev: Yeah, we do. Yep. Yep.

Bright: got time and I think he brings in somebody off the bench and a big guy. And so like I said, I don't

Kev: Yeah.

Bright: I I see an upside to him, but at this stage in the season, I think that has passed, barring any crazy injuries or something like that. now the focus

Kev: Great. Yep.

Bright: needs to be on Navajo and then Betcher as an alternative option. The I think the plan would be Hulsa and Matan starting behind Navajo. Yeah, obviously you're sticking with Durkin and Edelman. Totland and Wallem, I think, even though I think Wallum has regressed a little bit, I don't you don't really have any other options at this stage. So you've got

Kev: You don't make a change. Yeah.

Bright: them and then you got Bum Gardel and Polvara. And then that that third spot I think is still up for grabs and a rotation spot. McNaughton, Orozco, fall. Could be any of them. I don't think it matters at this point. I think they're all the same. They all have their yeah,

Kev: Change the woman.

Bright: they're interchangeable. They all have their their ups and their downs. Fall brings you some extra height, but

Kev: Mm-hmm.

Bright: also make some bonehead mistakes. I think we've seen McNaughton and Orasco aren't necessarily the best on one on one. McNaughton, I think, gives you a little bit more offensive opportunity.

Kev: Yep,

Bright: Yeah. So

Kev: agreed.

Bright: yeah, so I think our I think our lineups are are pretty much solidified and if if Mata Matan and Berke are healthy, I they think they fit right in. I think you play this week and we go out there and and so we'll take this to the next question then. Do you play for the win or do you play for the draw? I'm asking you.

Kev: That's a qu that's a question. Why why would you not play for the the win? Sit

Bright: That's always

Kev: back, just not to lose the game, not to give the fast breaks and lose? No. No.

Bright: Well, and that's been that's been something though, is that some of the games that we've given up goals have been in transition. You look at the Portland game where you had six minutes of a defensive breakdown. You look at the San Diego game, well,

Kev: Mm-hmm.

Bright: we were the better team, but all it took was one counterattack, and that's what you don't want to give up against Houston.

Kev: Yep. Yep.

Bright: So

Kev: Yeah, but you know, one There we've questioned it a little bit over the last two games, I think, maybe three. Have we lost a little bit of the spark on our on the offensive side? So you have to come in this game and prove that it's still there. I think you play for the win. You don't worry about giving up the fast breaks. I mean, you worry about it, but you don't crowd the box in this game.

Bright: Well I th I think you you always play for the win. I like when you're playing for the draw, it

Kev: Thank you very much.

Bright: never ends well, I feel like. and it's certainly not exciting, that's for sure. When I look up I just pulled up the season stats, so

Kev: When we go up three nothing, then if you want to say, Hey, let's let's shift our focus, that's fine.

Bright: Yeah.

Kev: But let's wait until we score the first three goals in ten minutes.

Bright: Yeah. Overall the stats are pretty even, which you would expect considering where we're at. on the in the standings, right? Like we're we're pretty even. We do have a better goal differential. the season stats, City has a slightly higher possession, fifty one to forty nine. we generate a couple more shots, thirteen to twelve. Shots on goal again, we're a little bit higher, five to two, or excuse me, five to four. Passing accuracy, they're actually higher. Corners, we get a little bit more corners, we get more crosses. we're definitely better in the air than Houston, so look for that. Our expected goals are much higher. So we're we're generating more dangerous opportunities. So files, we generate more files.

Kev: something so

Bright: right. So so I don't know, again on paper, we should be the better team. but we're we have to go down to Houston and Houston has to win if they wanna keep playing at home. So they have a lot to play for and it

Kev: We're just we're on a bad streak right now and I think we need to break it going into the playoffs here. That's all it is to me. You've you've gotta win this one, break this streak of what,

Bright: So

Kev: six games or something like five games of I

Bright: Yeah.

Kev: think it's six. Nothing but ties and and losses.

Bright: So it's more about momentum and morale for the team, right? Yeah. You go in and you you

Kev: Hundred hundred percent, right? Yeah. Yep. Yep. That's it.

Bright: get even a draw on the road, secure home field advantage, maybe you score some goals finally, and then you start thinking like, All right, we're back, baby. We got our players back, our form is back, and we're ready for the playoffs. All right. Perfect.

Kev: Yep. Exactly. Yep. That's it for me. That's a hundred percent it. It's gotta be it.

Bright: Well that's

Kev: Gotta build that momentum, gotta build the offense back in there and and make people feel good.

Bright: Let's do it. I'm gonna play some bets. I think you alluded to me that you're out of money.

Kev: No, I never said that, did I?

Bright: hopefully hopefully your wife isn't listening to this podcast.

Kev: my God. Two big losses. Two big bets. And yeah.

Bright: Yep, I know it. And the games at home, games that you expected to win, expected us to turn things around. I've definitely had a dip, but yeah,

Kev: That's that's why you don't go to the casino very often,

Bright: I hear ya. Well, hopefully this is the week. Hopefully this is the week we can turn it back around, both on the field and in the pocketbooks, and we'll come at you next week talking about

Kev: Mm, mm.

Bright: playoff scenarios or well, playoff matchups.

Kev: You missed a you missed a big news announcement. Yarrow. You you didn't mention Yarrow.

Bright: R Yeah, he retired. Yay. I

Kev: Retired. Yeah. He was one of your favorites, wasn't he?

Bright: I know you're being sarcastic. I thought I I always thought he was the worst player on the field. He was a good guy and yeah. But yeah, I always Yes. For sure.

Kev: But yeah. congratulations to him on his retirement.

Bright: For sure. All right. Good way to end it. All right.

Kev: Let's do it.

Bright: See you guys next week.